The Oscar Nominees...aka "Who?"

Well, here we are in another delightful Oscar season. Bob Hope often quipped that in his household Oscar was known as "The Fugitive" and that Oscar time was "Passover." Lately, I would add that many Oscar contenders fit into the category "The Unwatchables." Oscar historians are familiar with another bizarre concept from decades past: the show finishing early. I have watched the Oscars since 1995, not tuning in every year for one reason: only about one year in 3 has a movie that I have actually seen nominated for the big awards. Reviewing the Oscars is boring now because the critics and the movie people make the same complaints every year about the show and the Academy members never fix their problems.

The Academy members always complain that they have lost viewers and usually blame said loss on the host. In reality, the host has little to do with whether people want to watch the show: it's the Oscars, stupid. Nominate movies that people have seen and the stars of those movies, and people will watch, genuinely interested as to who will win the big awards. This year, the five movies up for Best Picture have so far COMBINED to gross $246 million. That total will increase, but six other movies exceeded that number by themselves. Spider Man 3, Shrek 3, Transformers, Pirates 3, Harry Potter Order of the Phoenix and I Am Legend each grossed over $250 million and they combine for a grand total of 4 Oscar nominations. The wildly successful Lord of the Rings trilogy managed to get through three Oscar seasons without an acting victory. We in the viewing public want to see actors we know of win for roles that we have seen. That happens only occasionally.

The critics complain that the show is too long. No one - that means not even the producer's mother - wants to see a mock symphony of people operating sound effects equipment to lead into the Best Sound Editing category. Just give the awards out already, and move the show along. Almost without exception, every recipient who is not an actor, director or producer is someone of whom the audience has never heard and about whom they will never care.

Will we have an Oscar show on TV this year? Judging by the nominees, the answer is "Who cares?" The Academy nominated 21 films for the top awards: Picture, Director, acting, and writing. The median gross for those movies was $17 million and seven movies grossed under $10 million. Last year, 28 movies surpassed a box office gross of $100 million, but only three of them are major award nominees. Of those three, two have only one nomination each, ("American Gangster," "Ratatouille") so "Juno" is the only blockbuster with significant Oscar nominations. Here is a likely scenario: Kate Blanchett wins Best Supporting Actress for "I'm Not There," (gross: $4 million), Hal Holbrook wins Best Supporting Actor for "Into the Wild" (gross $18 million), Julie Christie wins Best Actress for "Away From Her" (gross $16 million). If Tommy Lee Jones wins Best Actor for "In the Valley of Elah" (gross $7 million), the Academy might succeed in giving all of its acting awards to obscure movies.
This year, I'll probably go to bed early.

GOP in crisis

Last night, the people of Florida threw their support behind one of the greatest abominations who now has an (R) beside his name. John McCain would be the worst possible presidential candidate that the Republicans could support. Only Arlen Specter or Lincoln Chafee could be worse. He has been wrong on illegal immigration, wrong on the issue of free political speech, (McCain-Feingold, anyone?) but worst of all, he is a whore for media attention. McCain acts like an insecure, cowardly, weak legislator for hire. A few accolades in the New York Times will persuade him to do or say anything to maintain his "Maverick" label. "Maverick" means "Republican who votes like a liberal." As the standard-bearer of the Gang of 14, McCain sabotaged his own party's effort to accelerate the approval of President Bush's judicial nominees. The Democrats had used the filibuster in an unprecedented manner to halt the nominations of several judges. Thanks to McCain, nothing changed until the Democrats had time to reclaim the Senate and stonewall once again. President McCain would spend four years giving the Democrats everything they want and calling it "compromise."
Why have the voters in South Carolina and Florida given support to the man whom John Kerry sought as his running mate in 2004? Most likely, it is because McCain is a veteran, because his is pro-life (at least most of the time) and because they see no better alternative? Romney, the only serious challenger to McCain now, is a Mormon and a Northerner - those two factors probably play the biggest roles in preventing his success. As far as his stances on issues, Romney is the only conservative remaining in the race. Thompson was the other one until he withdrew from the race following South Carolina.
Super Tuesday, February 5, is the last chance for the GOP. Remember in 2000, it was close until W. won every race on Super Tuesday. This time, it appears McCain has the momentum and may ride a wave to the nomination. If Romney is the Republican candidate in November, he could win, provided that he carry all the states that went for W. in '04, or he could lose Ohio and pick up Michigan and a few other mid-Western states. If McCain is the nominee, the Republicans will not hold the White House.
Mark my words: McCain cannot possibly win the presidency if he is the nominee. Remember 2004: after four years of big government "Compassionate Conservatism," the Democrats attacked President Bush for "underfunding" the programs he had supported. They attacked him for spending too much money and too little at the same time. His policies did not siphon off enough votes to turn even one blue state red in 2004 because voters who favored big government voted Democrat. The echo always loses to the original source. McCain would be an echo on illegal immigration amnesty, an echo on government regulation of business, an echo on restrictions on political speech, an echo on war policy, and an echo on repealing the tax cuts from the Bush administration. Hillary or Obama can possibly beat Romney with difficult, but beating McCain would be easy. The good news is that my son will not remember the next four years.