Oscar Predictions

I'll check the winners on the internet Monday morning - I don't have enough of a dog in this fight to stay up until ungodly hours watching gimmicks precede Best Makeup and other such rot. I started making predictions in 2000, after reading a critic's Golden Globes picks and comparing his predictions to the reality. None - and I mean none - of his predictions bore fruit. After that kind of precedent, anyone can become a predictor.
This year, I have seen almost none of the movies, as usual. I took my wife to see "Transformers" because those huge special effects epics have to be seen on the big screen. (This could also explain why "Transformers" grossed more than all 5 Best Picture nominees COMBINED.)
Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men." Second Choice: "There Will Be Blood"
These two films own the buzz of the critics, which is what matters most at award time.
Best Director: Coen Bros. for "No Country for Old Men." Second Choice: Paul Anderson for "There Will be Blood"
I would be amazed at any other outcome for these two awards, but stranger things than an upset by "Juno" have happened.
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for "There Will be Blood." Second Choice: Johnny Depp for "Sweeney Todd"
In this case, Day-Lewis has paid his dues. Remember "Gangs of New York?" That movie established his acting ability in grim, villainous roles. This one should pay off. One of these years, Depp will win for a role like "Sweeney Todd," but not this time. Last Best Actor award for a star in a musical: Rex Harrison, "My Fair Lady," 1964. It's been a while.
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her." Second Choice: Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: the Golden Years."
Obviously, it won't be Ellen Page, so that leaves four roles that fewer than 3 million people saw. (assuming $7 per ticket on average) I understand Julie Christie's character has amnesia or some other mental ailment, which Oscar voters LOVE!! (eg. Shine, Forrest Gump, Rain Man...)
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men." Second Choice: None needed.
This ceremony is a formality for the villain who has won every preliminary award. The sentimental favorite, Hal Holbrook for "Into the Wild" is only actually sentimental for those old enough to remember "All the President's Men." The Academy never gives a career achievement award over a clear frontrunner like Bardem.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" Second Choice: Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
I expect that my streak of accuracy in this category will end this year. Oscar loves nominating gender-bending roles, so Blanchett as Bob Dylan is also deadly attractive. Anything is possible, but my rule of thumb is picking out the role that is closest to a lead part. On that basis, I'll go with Amy Ryan.
For other predictions, I have "Transformers" and "Pirates" picking up two technical awards each, "Juno" and "No Country" taking the Screenplay trophies, "Elizabeth" and "Atonement" winning Costume Design; and Score and Art Direction respectively. "No End in Sight" will win Best Documentary and "Ratatouille" will claim Best Animated film.
Maybe next year they'll nominate "Prince Caspian" and I'll be interested in the show. Yeah, fat chance.